miércoles, 25 de mayo de 2011

The BRIC’S


The transformation of the international economy is well under way.- In 2010, China overtook Japan to become the second largest economy in the world, five years earlier than initially predicted. With GDP of around $6.0 trillion, China is now about the same size as the other three BRIC countries combined. Collectively, the BRICs are roughly $11 trillion, which is about 83% of the size of the United States. In 2010, the BRICs grew by around 8.7% on average. In 2009, amid the world’s worst period of economic performance for decades, the BRIC countries collectively grew by around 6%.



The size of Brazil’s economy almost rivals that of Italy. What is more, both Russia and India are not far behind. Within the N-11, Turkey and Indonesia are growing at rates that are leading some to argue that they should be part of the BRICs.

By 2020, the four will be responsible for almost 55% of the increase in global GDP. In addition to the BRICs, the top ten contributors to global GDP growth this decade and beyond could include Mexico, Korea, Turkey and, maybe, Indonesia. These latter four economies, while certainly not as powerful as the BRICs, are increasingly important for the world economy.

Growth in the BRICs’ domestic demand is even more impressive—in 2010 it was close to 10% on average. In China, the consumer is gaining more importance as a driver of growth. The current USD value of the BRIC consumer is over $5 trillion, possibly closer to $6 trillion.  
 
The United States consumer is worth around $10.6 trillion, more than double the level of the BRIC counterpart. However, given the current pace of ascent, it is possible that the BRIC consumer could become almost as large as the United States consumer by the end of this decade, adding around $810 billion on average per year to the international economy over the next 10-20 years. BRICs consumption could quadruple in real terms by 2030. 

At some stage this decade, the four BRIC economies could collectively become as big as the United States, and China alone could grow to around two-thirds the size of the United States economy.